TRUMP 4/7 Author of How Tyrants Fall and How Nations Survive, Marcel Dirsus is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (Germany) and a member of the Standing Expert Committee Terrorism and Interior Security at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. He answers to the LILA Gazette questions.
By Megan Ly – 10th grade.
As an expert on political regimes, instability and authoritarianism, how would you define the first months of the Trump presidency?
We are witnessing a frontal assault on the institutions that make the United States a liberal democracy. President Trump isn’t a dictator, but it increasingly looks like he’d like to become one. As a result, American democracy is in acute danger.
According to you, does President Trump implement the classic “fascism playbook”? If yes, in what way?
Given the flood of headlines, the main difficulty in dealing with Trump’s agenda lies in differentiating between policies that are simply disagreeable and policies that can actually do significant or perhaps even irreversible damage to democracy. I’m primarily worried about two areas: The judiciary and security forces. If judges can be ignored, democracy is in immediate trouble. But ultimately, the implementation of the law requires men and women with guns. If they ever put one man above the constitution, democracy dies.
What role do you believe the media and social media plays in shaping the power dynamics around authoritarian figures?
The impact of social media, particularly when it comes to radicalization, is difficult to overestimate. There’s much to criticize about the way traditional media outlets cover the Trump administration, but the main difficulty in holding it accountable lies in the refusal of many Republicans to act on their (former) principles. All political systems rely on people. And if they refuse to act, even the best investigative reporters in the world will struggle to hold politicians accountable.
Drawing from historical examples of tyrants’ downfalls, are there current signs that President Trump’s grip on power is weakening or becoming stronger?
Donald Trump’s incompetence is America’s best bet. Generally speaking, he’s not very good at governing. Whether it’s crashing the markets or surrounding himself with loyalists who have no idea what they’re doing, there’s a decent chance that his administration will destroy itself.
How do oppositions to authoritarian leaders usually unfold? Do you see it happening in the US?
American democracy is struggling, but it’s still a democracy. And since elections are still meaningful, that should be the priority. Mobilize as many people as possible whenever it’s possible. Students, trade unionists, religious organizations – every little helps. We’re beyond appealing to higher ideals, Republicans need to be convinced that they will be crushed at the ballot box if they keep enabling the President.
In your book, you discuss the concept “dictator’s treadmill” where leaders feel compelled to maintain power due to the risks associated with stepping down. How does this phenomenon manifest in contemporary political settings, particularly in the United States under President Trump?
Once in power, tyrants can’t step down because they risk forced exile, imprisonment or death. As a result, they usually do whatever they can in order to stay in office. President Trump isn’t a dictator, but he may judge that he also needs political power in order to avoid prison. In that sense, he’s very different to most democratic leaders.
How do you see the future of American democracy ?
The immediate outlook is bleak, but it’s almost always a bad idea to bet against America. After working on the weaknesses of dictators for over a decade to write How Tyrants Fall, I’m more optimistic about the future of democracy than ever before. Things might not get easier anytime soon, but I have faith.
LILA Gazette 7 part coverage of the Trump administration :
Admiral Stavridis: How the Evolving Trump Administration Policies Impact International Security
Worldwide: Trump as seen abroad
The Closure of the Department of Education impacts the most vulnerable students
Opposition to Trump’s cuts to research takes the streets of L.A.
Why Greenland? Trump’s strange colonialist attempt
Marcel Dirsus: “We are witnessing a frontal assault on the institutions”
lilagazette.com 
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